ABSTRACT
This research work investigates the impact of exchange rate on export of agricultural products by the monetary authorities of Nigeria, using the least squares Statistical package .The data utilized for least square spanned between 1998-2008.
From the finding of this research work, it was observed that the success of export of agricultural products critically depends on the exchange rate elasticity of foreign demand for the country's export. In Nigeria's case, exports are basically primary in nature i.e. either mineral or agricultural products which at reduced external prices (due to currency devaluation) do not significantly increase export earnings. Since the end result of Nigeria's flexible exchange rate regime is currency denominated assets in the foreign exchange market in the policy is not ideal for Nigeria's situation. Thus, the paper concludes by recommending among others currency appreciation combined with economic stability and liberalized export orientation regime.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
One of the most dramatic events in Nigeria over the past decade was the devaluation of the Nigeria naira with the adoption of structural adjustment programme (SAP) in 1986.
Significantly ,this devaluation resulted in changes in the structure and volume of Nigeria's agricultural export as empirically determined by many researchers (Oyejide, 1986,Ihlmodu,1993; Osuntogun et al,1994; World Bank 1994 the depreciation also increased the prices of agricultural exports and studies have shown a marked increase in volume of agricultural exports over the years .However ,the volatility ,frequency and instability of the exchange rate movement since the beginning of the floating exchange rate raise a concern about the impact of such movements on agricultural trade flows.
Among other measures, the structural adjustment programme (SAP),which started in 1986 abolished the commodity Board, the body that since 1960 had been responsible for organization and purchase of agricultural exports .As a result farmers could sell their products directly to foreign and local processors without any intermediary ,thus obtaining higher prices for their products .This was expected to remove the excessive taxation on farmers products by the erstwhile marketing board and leave producer prices to be determined by market forces. Given that agricultural output is influenced by prices among other factors, the depreciation of the naira and abolish of the commodity boards were expected to result in an overall increase in production of exports.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Change in income earning of exports crop producers come as a result of either increase or decrease in international world price of exports or devaluation of the currency and the subsequent increase in product prices. Such price/exchange rate changes, however, may lead to a major decline in future output if they are unpredicted and erratic. Fluctuation -whether positive or negative is not desirable as it increase risk and uncertainty in international transactions costs. An IMF (1984) study cites arguments that exchange rate variability would also tend to induce macroeconomic phenomena that are undesired, for example inflation and protectionism. Despite this assertion and that of other studies more recent research explains why a positive effect could also be possible (de Grauwe, 1988); Caballero and Corbo, 1989).
If firms hedge against exchange rate risk, one could not expect to find a strong negative effect on trade .Hedging against risk can be done via future or forward market Where forward markets exist, the nature of the uncertainty faced by traders is transformed .Forward market represents, in effect, a guaranteed forecast of the exchange rate that will prevail at the end of the contract period, which a trader can take advantage of by payment of a small margin around the forward rates .Since currency uncertainty can be removed from short run trading transaction by payment of this margin ,the cost of such uncertainty cannot be higher than the cost of purchasing insurance against it.
1.3 REASEARCH QUESTION
From the above research problems, the following research question was formulated to provide solution to the problem under investigation. These are thus:
i. Does exchange rate contributed to export of agricultural product in Nigeria?
ii. To what extent export of agricultural product contribute to economic growth of Nigeria?
iii. What are challenges of agricultural development in Nigeria?
1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The general objective of this study is to determine the impact of exchange rate on export of agricultural product in Nigeria.
The specific objectives are as thus:
i. To examine the contribution of exchange rate on export of agricultural product in Nigeria.
ii. To determine the extent which export of agricultural product contributed to Nigeria economy
iii. To examine the challenges of agricultural development in Nigeria.
1.5 STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
The research study empirically tested hope to achieve the following
Hi: There is positive significant contribution of export agricultural Output to economic development in Nigeria.
Ho: There is no positive significant contribution of export of Agricultural output to economic development in Nigeria.
1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The inefficient and ineffectiveness on the export of agricultural products in the provision of competitive goods in the foreign market has been ascribed to a combination of factors including low level of industrialization, inadequate financing of export industries, inefficient performance of export promotion agencies, inadequacy of incentive schemes, inappropriate export promotion strategies, inadequate infrastructural facilities ,high cost of production. Series of efforts have been made to arrest this problems but with little or no effect in the sector.
i. Enhancing export supply capacity
ii. Formulate and implement effective strategies to strengthen productivity and growth in output
iii. Ensuring that agricultural export business remains profitable.
iv. Ensuring that exporter attains international competitiveness.
1.7 SCOPE AND LIMITATION
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